Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 25.606519 30.570895 36.011385 42.386529 49.621262 57.545542 66.849582
2025-07-20 18.732239 25.381668 33.378454 43.571980 56.078935 70.779487 89.209233
2025-07-27 14.935648 22.369434 31.974243 45.005616 61.910489 82.771817 110.099243
2025-08-03 12.266132 20.063769 30.780852 46.098052 66.886089 93.546203 129.676722
2025-08-10 9.799898 17.478851 28.679756 45.487186 69.257390 100.808790 144.862415
2025-08-17 8.196244 15.824652 27.563010 45.943927 72.873021 109.665688 162.321127
2025-08-24 6.783497 14.180340 26.177488 45.748858 75.390532 116.988233 177.878424
2025-08-31 5.396301 12.289360 24.109217 44.223509 75.728565 121.135644 189.092295
2025-09-07 4.660166 11.417929 23.558868 44.946994 79.365047 130.030148 207.185773
2025-09-14 3.796508 10.114254 22.075463 43.964541 80.233678 134.842026 219.544409
2025-09-21 3.352452 9.572756 21.862488 45.045514 84.349804 144.572038 239.308990
2025-09-28 2.629777 8.251762 20.009009 43.083371 83.373039 146.490596 247.559246
2025-10-05 2.328214 7.882469 20.031321 44.615325 88.513989 158.442778 271.908102
2025-10-12 2.019572 7.424705 19.825273 45.732783 93.073827 169.778536 295.911620
2025-10-19 1.783422 7.091363 19.823600 47.213480 98.316991 182.386350 322.279394
2025-10-26 1.555808 6.713525 19.661964 48.347279 102.984917 194.220719 347.806031
2025-11-02 1.258013 6.020828 18.671254 47.712922 104.413024 200.781970 365.229956
2025-11-09 1.067697 5.602954 18.252994 48.187196 107.853077 210.762233 388.349981
2025-11-16 0.877442 5.106819 17.554155 47.984642 109.988137 218.592569 408.215401
2025-11-23 0.669718 4.439832 16.287147 46.400523 109.365604 221.654090 420.379423
2025-11-30 0.574405 4.187943 16.084183 47.151936 113.275582 232.645834 445.842392
2025-12-07 0.445906 3.710384 15.154312 46.131535 113.608977 237.365233 461.008648
2025-12-14 0.389707 3.556229 15.140227 47.254252 118.283299 249.904931 489.583080